Exploratory Data Analysis

Author

JJC

Mortality Rates

Mortality rate by age category

Calculate mortality rate percentage for each age category

Excess Mortality

Method 1: Deaths in excess of the average

year age_cat mort_count pop_count rate_pc avg5yr proj_avg
2010 0-4 327 347000 0.09424 213 NA
2010 5-14 55 610700 0.00901 46 NA
2010 15-24 261 615700 0.04239 170 NA
2010 25-34 449 762800 0.05886 333 NA
2010 35-44 703 681500 0.10315 644 NA
2010 45-54 1425 568300 0.25075 1347 NA

Number of Deaths above Average

Percentage Deaths above Average by Age Group

year age_cat mort_count xs_avg_pc
2020 0-4 180 -15.49
2020 5-14 47 2.17
2020 15-24 136 -20.00
2020 25-34 256 -23.12
2020 35-44 642 -0.31
2020 45-54 1299 -3.56
2020 55-64 2765 -1.46
2020 65-74 5822 6.77
2020 75+ 20618 5.41
2021 0-4 194 -8.92

Method 2A: Difference from 2019 baseline

The baseline level is the 2019 numbers for each age group. Calculate the difference from the baseline, expressed as a percentage.

year age_cat mort_count pop_count rate_pc avg5yr proj_avg base_pc proj_base
2010 0-4 327 347000 0.09424 213 NA 0.06948 NA
2010 5-14 55 610700 0.00901 46 NA 0.00649 NA
2010 15-24 261 615700 0.04239 170 NA 0.02476 NA
2010 25-34 449 762800 0.05886 333 NA 0.04919 NA
2010 35-44 703 681500 0.10315 644 NA 0.08663 NA
2010 45-54 1425 568300 0.25075 1347 NA 0.20768 NA

Death Rate and Baseline Death Rate

Excess Death Rate

Method 2C: Difference from linear trend

Age group“5-14” has low \(r^2\) value (0.42) and so, a linear fit is unwarranted.

Linear Models for Death Rate Progression

Calculate difference between death rate and value predicted by linear models, as a percentage

Fitted and Predicted Values

year age_cat rate_pc fitted_values predicted
2010 0-4 0.09424 0.08841 NA
2010 15-24 0.04239 0.04743 NA
2010 25-34 0.05886 0.06166 NA
2010 35-44 0.10315 0.10716 NA
2010 45-54 0.25075 0.25650 NA
2010 55-64 0.61927 0.63922 NA

Observed Data and Linear Model Comparison

Excess Death Rate

Excess Mortality. Age-group comparison.

Method 1

Method 2A: Difference from 2019 baseline

Method 2C: Difference from Trend

Warning: plotly.js does not (yet) support horizontal legend items 
You can track progress here: 
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Comparison of Excess Mortality Methods

The age group 5-14 is not given for Method 2C since the Linear Model does not fit to the observed data.


EuroStat Mortality Data

Death Rate compared to 2019 Baseline

Appendix

Linear Fit of Death Rate for years 2010 to 2019

Plot Function