| year | age_cat | mort_count | pop_count | rate_pc | avg5yr | proj_avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 0-4 | 327 | 347000 | 0.09424 | 213 | NA |
| 2010 | 5-14 | 55 | 610700 | 0.00901 | 46 | NA |
| 2010 | 15-24 | 261 | 615700 | 0.04239 | 170 | NA |
| 2010 | 25-34 | 449 | 762800 | 0.05886 | 333 | NA |
| 2010 | 35-44 | 703 | 681500 | 0.10315 | 644 | NA |
| 2010 | 45-54 | 1425 | 568300 | 0.25075 | 1347 | NA |
Exploratory Data Analysis
Mortality Rates
Mortality rate by age category
Calculate mortality rate percentage for each age category
Excess Mortality
Method 1: Deaths in excess of the average
Number of Deaths above Average
Percentage Deaths above Average by Age Group
| year | age_cat | mort_count | xs_avg_pc |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0-4 | 180 | -15.49 |
| 2020 | 5-14 | 47 | 2.17 |
| 2020 | 15-24 | 136 | -20.00 |
| 2020 | 25-34 | 256 | -23.12 |
| 2020 | 35-44 | 642 | -0.31 |
| 2020 | 45-54 | 1299 | -3.56 |
| 2020 | 55-64 | 2765 | -1.46 |
| 2020 | 65-74 | 5822 | 6.77 |
| 2020 | 75+ | 20618 | 5.41 |
| 2021 | 0-4 | 194 | -8.92 |
Method 2A: Difference from 2019 baseline
The baseline level is the 2019 numbers for each age group. Calculate the difference from the baseline, expressed as a percentage.
| year | age_cat | mort_count | pop_count | rate_pc | avg5yr | proj_avg | base_pc | proj_base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 0-4 | 327 | 347000 | 0.09424 | 213 | NA | 0.06948 | NA |
| 2010 | 5-14 | 55 | 610700 | 0.00901 | 46 | NA | 0.00649 | NA |
| 2010 | 15-24 | 261 | 615700 | 0.04239 | 170 | NA | 0.02476 | NA |
| 2010 | 25-34 | 449 | 762800 | 0.05886 | 333 | NA | 0.04919 | NA |
| 2010 | 35-44 | 703 | 681500 | 0.10315 | 644 | NA | 0.08663 | NA |
| 2010 | 45-54 | 1425 | 568300 | 0.25075 | 1347 | NA | 0.20768 | NA |
Death Rate and Baseline Death Rate
Excess Death Rate
Method 2C: Difference from linear trend
Age group“5-14” has low \(r^2\) value (0.42) and so, a linear fit is unwarranted.
Linear Models for Death Rate Progression
Calculate difference between death rate and value predicted by linear models, as a percentage
Fitted and Predicted Values
| year | age_cat | rate_pc | fitted_values | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 0-4 | 0.09424 | 0.08841 | NA |
| 2010 | 15-24 | 0.04239 | 0.04743 | NA |
| 2010 | 25-34 | 0.05886 | 0.06166 | NA |
| 2010 | 35-44 | 0.10315 | 0.10716 | NA |
| 2010 | 45-54 | 0.25075 | 0.25650 | NA |
| 2010 | 55-64 | 0.61927 | 0.63922 | NA |
Observed Data and Linear Model Comparison
Excess Death Rate
Excess Mortality. Age-group comparison.
Method 1
Method 2A: Difference from 2019 baseline
Method 2C: Difference from Trend
Warning: plotly.js does not (yet) support horizontal legend items
You can track progress here:
https://github.com/plotly/plotly.js/issues/53 Comparison of Excess Mortality Methods
The age group 5-14 is not given for Method 2C since the Linear Model does not fit to the observed data.
EuroStat Mortality Data
Death Rate compared to 2019 Baseline
Appendix
Linear Fit of Death Rate for years 2010 to 2019
